The first round of the NFL postseason concludes with what should be a defensive slugfest with the Houston Texans visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night.
The Steelers (10-7) were the last team into the postseason when they survived a missed field goal by Baltimore on the final play of the regular season. The Texans (12-5) had already earned a wild-card spot thanks to their nine-game winning streak, and were installed as one of four wild-card road favorites. Two of the first three have won thus far, the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo, while Green Bay suffered a late collapse at Chicago.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Houston is a consensus 2.5-point favorite. That includes at BetRivers, where the Texans have been backed by 59% of the spread-line money while their -159 moneyline has drawn 58% of the money.
The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in nearly nine years, so it comes as little surprise that they have failed to cover the spread in each of their past six postseason games.
Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game, with the 38.0 total points line seeing the Under supported by 52% of the money and 54% of the total bets. Each of Houston’s past four road games have hit the Under.
INSIDE EDGE
Houston’s top-ranked defense leads the league in forcing three-and-out on 30.1% of opponents’ possessions this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks fourth-worst in going three-and-out on 24.9% of its possessions, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable engine.
KEY STAT
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was lowest among 27 qualified quarterbacks this season in targeting receivers at an average depth of 4.9 yards on first down. However, he has also gone seven complete games since throwing his last interception at the Los Angeles Chargers on Nov. 9.
PROP PICKS
–Texans WR Nico Collins 50+ Receiving Yards (-287 at DraftKings): Collins had only three 100-yard receiving games during the regular season, but did have at least 55 in each of his past five — leading to this being the most popular prop at the book. Better potential payouts are available for 60+ yards (-179), 70+ (-115), 80+ (+124), 90+ (+180) and 100+ (+259).
–Steelers WR DK Metcalf Anytime TD (+215 at BetRivers): It was clear how much the Steelers’ passing game missed Metcalf during his two-game suspension. His big frame will be an important target for Rodgers in the red zone, although Metcalf does have just one touchdown catch over his past eight games.
“DK is the No. 1 receiver, so it’s great having DK back,” Rodgers said. “He’s real thankful to be back, I know. And we’re all thankful to have him back as well.”
THE NEWS
The Steelers have dropped six consecutive playoff games since defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round on Jan. 15, 2017.
Pittsburgh lost to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game seven days later and since has followed up with five straight first-game setbacks.
While the Texans have a standout quarterback in C.J. Stroud, it is the other side of the ball led by defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter that sets the tone.
Houston allowed a league-low 277.2 yards per game this season and ranked second in points allowed at 17.4 per game. The Texans also ranked second with a plus-17 takeaway margin.
Hunter finished third in the NFL with 15 sacks and Anderson tied for eighth with 12. Star Derek Stingley Jr., fellow cornerback Kamari Lassiter and safeties Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock all had four interceptions.
“They’ve just got a kick-butt unit,” Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said. “They do. They’ve got a top-flight edge tandem in Hunter and Anderson. They’ve got a top-flight corner tandem on the outside, and so they rush very well. They cover very well. They’re not trying to split the atom schematically. They don’t have to when you have corners and edge rushers like that.”
Stroud is playing in the playoffs for the third straight season and brings a 2-2 postseason mark into the contest.
During the regular season, the 24-year-old passed for 3,041 yards and 19 touchdowns against eight interceptions despite missing three games due to a concussion.
Meanwhile, Rodgers has played well for the Steelers and had 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 16 games. He hasn’t been picked off during his last seven outings.
“I’m a big fan of Aaron. I love what he does,” Stroud said. “His mechanics are through the roof. … He’s a heck of a player and I respect him and he’s doing it at a high level in Year 21 (of his career).”
Rodgers has an 11-10 postseason record but his last victory came in the 2020 season’s playoffs for the Green Bay Packers.
The Steelers hope to get a boost from receiver DK Metcalf (team-best 850 receiving yards, six TDs), who is back after a two-game suspension due to an incident with a fan in Detroit.
THEY SAID IT
–“It’s going to be old-school football and it’s going to be a physical game. If you like football, you should be excited about it, and I’m ready for it.” — Texans coach DeMeco Ryans
–“It’s win or go home at this point. We obviously want to win, but we just got to go out and execute our job and take it one play at a time.” — Steelers left tackle Dylan Cook
INJURY REPORT
Steelers star outside linebacker T.J. Watt had a week full of smooth practices and said his body is feeling good. Watt recorded an interception against the Ravens in his return from a three-game absence due to a partially collapsed lung.
On Sunday morning, Pittsburgh downgraded defensive tackle Isaiahh Loudermilk (ankle) to out versus the Texans. He initially was listed as questionable after logging limited practice sessions on both Friday and Saturday.
For Houston, backup quarterback Davis Mills joined the team in Pittsburgh after being listed as questionable. Mills and his wife welcomed their first child earlier this week and formally announced the birth of their son on Saturday.
Mills, 27, went 3-0 as a starter this season when Stroud was sidelined with a concussion. Rookie Graham Mertz, a sixth-round choice, is Houston’s third-string quarterback.
Also, Lassiter (ankle/knee) was a full practice participant on Saturday and is good to go. Running back Jawhar Jordan (ankle) was ruled out Saturday and cornerback Ajani Carter (hamstring) was ruled out Sunday. Safety Jaylen Reed (forearm) is questionable.
PREDICTION
It will be cold with game-time temperatures expected to be in the mid-30s, but clear. Expect this to be a physical matchup dictated by field position and finishing drives with touchdowns. Ultimately, the Texans’ excellent pass rush matches up exactly where the Steelers’ biggest concern is. Rodgers has been sacked multiple times in four consecutive games and will be hard-pressed to make the occasional play with his legs as he did in a tight win against Baltimore last week. –Texans 20, Steelers 16
